LONDON—Nigel Farage, the pro-Brexit European Member of Parliament, likes to joke that he’s the turkey who voted for Christmas and now, some speculate that he might actually be right. He's set to lose his seat in the European Parliament when his dream of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union is realized in 2019.
In fact, his impending exit has some wondering if European elites have seen off the high tide of nationalism, or if there’s another wave yet to hit them: Marine Le Pen failed to win the French presidency and Geert Wilders didn’t unseat the Dutch prime minister.
Like Farage, their star power has lost its shine, some say.
“Farage is still box office as far as the mainstream media goes – he still seems to be a go-to-guy for comments on all things Trump and Brexit,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “He still has the power to irritate the political powers, but whether he has the power to persuade or mobilize large numbers of voters anymore is less certain.”
While the UK did vote to leave the EU in 2016, it’s Boris Johnson – not Farage – who is largely credited with that victory. Additionally, Farage’s United Kingdom Independence Party didn’t manage to win a single seat at Westminster in this year’s snap election.
But it was when he ventured across the Atlantic for a string of speaking engagements that Farage’s luck took a turn for the worse. He has since made a career of defending President Trump in the British media, including when the president recently retweeted a far-right, anti-Islamic politician convicted for religiously motivated harassment.
“He gambled on being Trump’s best British friend and it’s blown up in his face," said Bale. "So many people here are shocked by Trump’s behavior or think he’s ridiculous that it’s not a plus to be associated with the president.”
That’s a feeling shared by many British voters. “Farage is a collapsed, one trick pony whose only claim to fame, other than disrupting Britain for generations to come, is a series of desperate photo opportunities with possibly the most despised man in the world at this current time,” said Niall Mason, 39, an accountant from London.
That's more or less the case for Farage's far-right contemporaries on the Continent, too, analysts say.
Leader of France's far-right National Front, Marine Le Pen’s journey to become a genuine contender for the Champs Elysée Palace wasn’t akin to the meteoric rise in nationalism that the UK has experienced with the Brexit referendum. She has enjoyed a gradual, and some might argue more sustainable, progress in France.
Back in 2012 she took home a respectable 17.9 percent of votes in the first round of presidential elections, which grew to 21.3 percent in 2017’s first round and then 33.9 percent in the second round.
“People thought Le Front National was done when Marine Le Pen took over, but the potential is still there. You can never write these politicians off,” said Tim Oliver, an analyst at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Even so, Le Pen's tactic of cozying up to Trump since his election has largely backfired in France just as it has with Farage, said Florian Hartleb, a German political scientist specializing in European populism and right-wing movements.
"It's no longer playing to her advantage to so strongly associate herself with Trump and there's been massive infighting within the Front National," he said. "Marine Le Pen is being hotly contested within her party and there's a big power struggle at play."
But given the disillusionment with the French political establishment that gave rise to both Le Pen and French President Emmanuel Macron, it would be naïve to say she's out for the count, said Oliver.
“She is still there but very much in the shadow of Macron who is in his honeymoon period," he said. "She still has potential, and if there is another euro crisis then she could get a boost again.”
The Netherlands' Geert Wilders and his right-wing, the anti-Islam Party for Freedom have also lost their luster after failing to unseat Prime Minister Mark Rutte back in March – especially considering that Rutte and others have co-opted watered-down versions of Wilders' anti-immigration views for political capital, said Hartleb.
But while Wilders, Le Pen and their contemporaries may have influenced political discourse, their five-minutes of fame may have come and gone, he added.
"It's true that they've had a lasting impact on politics and they've brought their agenda into the political discourse," said Hartleb. "But I believe here – similar to Marine Le Pen – they've exceeded their peak and are increasingly experiencing vulnerability."
Be that as it may, populist parties in Germany and Austria were still able to make major electoral victories over the past year.
Germany's right-wing Alternative for Germany secured almost 13 percent of the vote in the nation's Sept. 24 elections – the first time since the 1950's that a right-wing party has sat in parliament. Meanwhile, the electoral gains of Austria's far-right Freedom Party have resulted in a conservative coalition government that'll be sworn in later this month.
But analysts say the wherewithal of these parties and their figureheads to continue to dominate the political mood in the U.K. and on the Continent depends on their ability to stay relevant in the absence of any major referendums or elections on the horizon.
“Anyone who thinks the media won’t find someone else and move on is fooling themselves," said Bale. "Producers get bored. Audiences get bored.”
Photo: Nov. 14, 2017 - Strasbourg, France - Screenshot of Member of European Parliament Nigel Farage during a debate about the "Paradise Papers" at the European Parliament, in Strasbourg, France on November 14, 2017. Farage tweeted: "George Soros has spent billions in the EU to undermine the nation state. This is where the real international political collusion is."
Credit: Courtesy of Nigel Farage's Twitter page (11/14/2017)
Story/photo publish date: 12/13/2017
A version of this story was published in the Washington Times.
